It is 'Warming', Take it Off Baby!..

Who knew a data point about carbon emissions could be so sexy? 

Statisticians reject global cooling

By SETH BORENSTEIN
AP Science Writer

updated 4:47 p.m. ET, Mon., Oct . 26, 2009

WASHINGTON - Have you heard that the world is now cooling instead of warming? You may have seen some news reports on the Internet or heard about it from a provocative new book. Only one problem: It's not true, according to an analysis of the numbers done by several independent statisticians for The Associated Press.

The case that the Earth might be cooling partly stems from recent weather. Last year was cooler than previous years. It's been a while since the super-hot years of 1998 and 2005. So is this a longer climate trend or just weather's normal ups and downs?

In a blind test, the AP gave temperature data to four independent statisticians and asked them to look for trends, without telling them what the numbers represented. The experts found no true temperature declines over time.

"If you look at the data and sort of cherry-pick a micro-trend within a bigger trend, that technique is particularly suspect," said John Grego, a professor of statistics at the University of South Carolina.

Yet the idea that things are cooling has been repeated in opinion columns, a BBC news story posted on the Drudge Report and in a new book by the authors of the best-seller "Freakonomics." Last week, a poll by the Pew Research Center found that only 57 percent of Americans now believe there is strong scientific evidence for global warming, down from 77 percent in 2006.

Global warming skeptics base their claims on an unusually hot year in 1998. Since then, they say, temperatures have dropped - thus, a cooling trend. But it's not that simple.

Since 1998, temperatures have dipped, soared, fallen again and are now rising once more. Records kept by the British meteorological office and satellite data used by climate skeptics still show 1998 as the hottest year. However, data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and NASA show 2005 has topped 1998. Published peer-reviewed scientific research generally cites temperatures measured by ground sensors, which are from NOAA, NASA and the British, more than the satellite data.

The recent Internet chatter about cooling led NOAA's climate data center to re-examine its temperature data. It found no cooling trend.

Story continues below "The last 10 years are the warmest 10-year period of the modern record," said NOAA climate monitoring chief Deke Arndt. "Even if you analyze the trend during that 10 years, the trend is actually positive, which means warming."

The AP sent expert statisticians NOAA's year-to-year ground temperature changes over 130 years and the 30 years of satellite-measured temperatures preferred by skeptics and gathered by scientists at the University of Alabama in Huntsville.

Statisticians who analyzed the data found a distinct decades-long upward trend in the numbers, but could not find a significant drop in the past 10 years in either data set. The ups and downs during the last decade repeat random variability in data as far back as 1880.

Saying there's a downward trend since 1998 is not scientifically legitimate, said David Peterson, a retired Duke University statistics professor and one of those analyzing the numbers.

Identifying a downward trend is a case of "people coming at the data with preconceived notions," said Peterson, author of the book "Why Did They Do That? An Introduction to Forensic Decision Analysis."

One prominent skeptic said that to find the cooling trend, the 30 years of satellite temperatures must be used. The satellite data tends to be cooler than the ground data. And key is making sure 1998 is part of the trend, he added.

It's what happens within the past 10 years or so, not the overall average, that counts, contends Don Easterbrook, a Western Washington University geology professor and global warming skeptic.

"I don't argue with you that the 10-year average for the past 10 years is higher than the previous 10 years," said Easterbrook, who has self-published some of his research. "We started the cooling trend after 1998. You're going to get a different line depending on which year you choose.

"Should not the actual temperature be higher now than it was in 1998?" Easterbrook asked. "We can play the numbers games."

That's the problem, some of the statisticians said.

Grego produced three charts to show how choosing a starting date can alter perceptions. Using the skeptics' satellite data beginning in 1998, there is a "mild downward trend," he said. But doing that is "deceptive."

The trend disappears if the analysis starts in 1997. And it trends upward if you begin in 1999, he said.

Apart from the conflicting data analyses is the eyebrow-raising new book title from Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner, "Super Freakonomics: Global Cooling, Patriotic Prostitutes and Why Suicide Bombers Should Buy Life Insurance."

A line in the book says: "Then there's this little-discussed fact about global warming: While the drumbeat of doom has grown louder over the past several years, the average global temperature during that time has in fact decreased."

That led to a sharp rebuke from the Union of Concerned Scientists, which said the book mischaracterizes climate science with "distorted statistics."

Levitt, a University of Chicago economist, said he does not believe there is a cooling trend. He said the line was just an attempt to note the irony of a cool couple of years at a time of intense discussion of global warming. Levitt said he did not do any statistical analysis of temperatures, but "eyeballed" the numbers and noticed 2005 was hotter than the last couple of years. Levitt said the "cooling" reference in the book title refers more to ideas about trying to cool the Earth artificially.

Statisticians say that in sizing up climate change, it's important to look at moving averages of about 10 years. They compare the average of 1999-2008 to the average of 2000-2009. In all data sets, 10-year moving averages have been higher in the last five years than in any previous years.

"To talk about global cooling at the end of the hottest decade the planet has experienced in many thousands of years is ridiculous," said Ken Caldeira, a climate scientist at the Carnegie Institution at Stanford.

Ben Santer, a climate scientist at the Department of Energy's Lawrence Livermore National Lab, called it "a concerted strategy to obfuscate and generate confusion in the minds of the public and policymakers" ahead of international climate talks in December in Copenhagen.

President Barack Obama weighed in on the topic Friday at MIT. He said some opponents "make cynical claims that contradict the overwhelming scientific evidence when it comes to climate change - claims whose only purpose is to defeat or delay the change that we know is necessary."

Earlier this year, climate scientists in two peer-reviewed publications statistically analyzed recent years' temperatures against claims of cooling and found them not valid.

Not all skeptical scientists make the flat-out cooling argument.

"It pretty much depends on when you start," wrote John Christy, the Alabama atmospheric scientist who collects the satellite data that skeptics use. He said in an e-mail that looking back 31 years, temperatures have gone up nearly three-quarters of a degree Fahrenheit (four-tenths of a degree Celsius). The last dozen years have been flat, and temperatures over the last eight years have declined a bit, he wrote.

Oceans, which take longer to heat up and longer to cool, greatly influence short-term weather, causing temperatures to rise and fall temporarily on top of the overall steady warming trend, scientists say. The biggest example of that is El Nino.

El Nino, a temporary warming of part of the Pacific Ocean, usually spikes global temperatures, scientists say. The two recent warm years, both 1998 and 2005, were El Nino years. The flip side of El Nino is La Nina, which lowers temperatures. A La Nina bloomed last year and temperatures slipped a bit, but 2008 was still the ninth hottest in 130 years of NOAA records.

Of the 10 hottest years recorded by NOAA, eight have occurred since 2000, and after this year it will be nine because this year is on track to be the sixth-warmest on record.

The current El Nino is forecast to get stronger, probably pushing global temperatures even higher next year, scientists say. NASA climate scientist Gavin Schmidt predicts 2010 may break a record, so a cooling trend "will be never talked about again."
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Read it at: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/wires/2009/10/26/ap-impact-statisticians-r_ws_333941.html

2009 Solar Decathlon Takes Over the National Mall

By DCist Contributor Lauren Evans

 Almost overnight, the National Mall has been transformed from an expanse of sickly grass to a prim neighborhood. The houses therein have everything yours does - hot water, appliances, lights and climate control - with one major exception: an electricity bill.

The Solar Decathlon, a biennial competition sponsored by the Department of Energy, features designs by students from 20 universities in both the U.S and abroad, who come to D.C in hopes that theirs will prove the most functional solar powered house of them all.

As per its name, the Solar Decathlon's judges will rank the houses in ten different categories, everything from architecture and engineering to market viability. Despite a long list of qualifications and restrictions, each of the houses looks remarkably distinct from its neighbors.

Team Germany, the reigning champions of the competition, erected what looks like a shiny black box, with the house's whole façade covered in solar cells.

Others have gone for a more agrarian look: Cornell University created what appears to be a trio of aging silos enveloped by a lawn-like field of grains. But in terms of function, the "Silo House" is far from the similarly shaped structures that dot upstate New York: the building's exterior is weather proofed with soy-based, closed-cell spray foam that gives it a much higher degree of insulation than that which is used in the typical home.

But what makes each house unique is not necessarily synonymous with what will make people want to actually live in it. Team Boston touts their house as being the most affordable, if not the most exciting to look at. Though Virginia Tech's house boasts sliding shading and insulation panels, what might entice many observers is that operation of the house can be controlled entirely via iPhone, through an app developed by a student.

Though it may be a few years before your neighborhood comes to resemble the one currently resting on the Mall, many of the technologies implemented by the competitors are becoming more and more common in real-life homes. Since the competition began in 2002, many of the winners have gone on to begin their own green technology companies. With any luck, the houses you tour today may soon resemble one you someday live in.

The houses competing in the 2009 Solar Decathlon will be available for free tours Oct. 9-13 and 15-18, 11 a.m.-3 p.m. Monday-Friday and 10 a.m.-5 p.m. Saturdays and Sundays, with the awards ceremony tentatively scheduled for 8 a.m on Friday, October 16. Check out solardecathlon.org for more details.

...

And the winner is... Team Germany (Technische Universität Darmstadt)
The 2007 champions did it again! Team Germany focused on producing surplus energy by using the maximum overall building dimensions allowed, applying photovoltaics to every available surface, and pushing the envelope with new technologies. The team walked away with the Net Metering contest and performed well in several others, including Architecture, Lighting Design, Comfort Zone, and Hot Water. Demonstrating that they are true champions, members of Team Germany were extremely gracious in their victory and recognized the work of their peers.

Obama to give $3.4 billion in grants for smart grid

By Tom Doggett Tom Doggett - Tue Oct 27, 6:10 am ET

ARCADIA, Florida (Reuters) - President Barack Obama on Tuesday announced $3.4 billion in grants to help build a "smart" electric grid meant to trim utility bills, reduce blackouts and carry power generated by solar and wind energy.

It was the largest award made in a single day from the $787 billion stimulus package approved by Congress. The White House said the award will create tens of thousands of jobs while upgrading the U.S. electric grid.

Republicans have heavily criticized the stimulus as wasteful spending that has done little to reduce America's 9.8 percent jobless rate.

The grants, which range from $400,000 to $200 million, will go to 100 companies, utilities, manufacturers, cities and other partners in 49 states -- every state except Alaska.

Obama made the announcement after taking a tour of an array of 90,000 solar panels that line a grassy plain of cow pastures deep in the muggy heart of Florida, apparently more panels than there are people in Arcadia.

Obama, doffing his suit coat against the heat and humidity, told a crowd the program was an important investment in the types of clean energy he would like to foster in the United States to wean the country off carbon fuels.

He said the grants would go to private companies, utilities and cities and were aimed at creating a "smarter, stronger and more secure electric grid."

"At this moment, there's something big happening in America when it comes to creating a clean energy economy," Obama said.

Carol Browner, Obama's top adviser on climate change and energy issues, told reporters that the current grid system was outdated and dilapidated.

"Not only do we need to make the current system bigger and add more watts, but we need to make it function better," she said.

"MORE THAN A FACE-LIFT"

The grants will not be used to build new power lines, but improve the capabilities of the electrical system. "I would say it's more than a face-lift," Browner said.

The money will pay for about 18 million smart meters that will help consumers manage energy use in their homes, 700 automated substations to make it faster for utilities to restore power knocked out by storms and 200,000 smart transformers that allow power companies to replace units before they fail, thus avoiding outages.

The winning companies have secured an additional $4.7 billion in private money to match their government grants, creating $8.1 billion in total investment in the smart grid.

One of the winning companies is Constellation Energy's Baltimore Gas and Electric Co, which will receive $200 million in grants to add to $250 million in private funds to deploy a smart meter network for all of its 1.1 million residential customers.

Constellation Energy chairman Mayo Shattuck said the new technology would put the country on the brink of the "greatest transformations of the electric grid ever."

"This technology allows consumers to have the opportunity to reduce their bills and it allows utilities to increase their efficiency," Shattuck said.

The White House will act fast to get the money into the economy, with the funds expected to be in the accounts of the winning companies within 60 days. The projects themselves will last 12 to 36 months.

BGE customers can use the meters to view their electricity use in real-time, allowing them to run appliances when there is less demand on the grid and power prices are cheaper.

Sempra Energy's San Diego Gas and Electric Co subsidiary will get $28.1 million on top of the $32 million it plans to spend to connect 1.4 million smart meters.

(Additional reporting by Tom Doggett and Patricia Zengerle in Washington; Editing by David Storey)

Envoy: No China-US climate pact from Obama visit 

SHANGHAI October 28, 2009, 07:23 am ET

President Barack Obama's visit to China next month is not likely to yield a separate accord on countering global warming, though both countries are pushing for progress for upcoming global talks in Copenhagen, the top U.S. envoy on climate change said Wednesday.

"I don't think we're going to get an agreement per se," said Todd Stern, the U.S. special envoy for climate change. However, he said Obama will work with Chinese President Hu Jintao toward facilitating an agreement at the international meeting.

Just over a month is left before the U.N. ministerial conference in Copenhagen, which will cap two years of negotiations on a global climate change treaty to replace the U.N.'s 1997 Kyoto Protocol on cutting carbon dioxide emissions.

Obama will make his first visit to China on Nov. 15-18.

"It's never been an effort on our side to work toward a separate deal, but we're going to be trying to make as much progress as possible," Stern told reporters following ministerial-level talks on clean energy development and climate change in Shanghai.

"We're pushing them and they're pushing us," he said.

The chief Chinese and U.S. negotiators played down differences over their commitments on reducing the heat-trapping emissions that cause global warming.

"All of us have to take responsibility for our own countries and for the sake of all mankind. This is not a matter of saying, only if other countries take certain measures will we take certain measures. It is not that kind of future," Xie Zhenhua, China's top climate envoy, told reporters Tuesday.

Stern defended U.S. progress on reducing emissions and promoting renewable energy, noting the $80 billion pledged for clean energy in the U.S. economic stimulus package.

"In eight months, President Obama has done more to regulate carbon dioxide emissions than anyone has done in U.S. history," Stern said. "We had to jump onto a moving train. He has done that and done it very rapidly. I reject the notion that we're not doing enough or not doing much."

Comprehensive energy and climate legislation passed the House of Representatives in record time, Stern said.

The Senate bill, however, is proving more difficult. On Tuesday, the Obama administration warned a Senate panel that the U.S. could slip further behind China and other countries in clean energy development if Congress fails to pass climate legislation.

Stern was upbeat about the prospects for Copenhagen, though experts say tough challenges remain.

Wealthy nations say all countries, including growing polluters such as China and India, have to agree to broad cuts in emissions. Last week, however, the two Asian countries agreed to stand together in Copenhagen and resist making emissions limits binding and subject to international monitoring.

Developing countries argue that the industrial world produced most of the heat-trapping greenhouse gases and should bear the costs of fixing the problem.

"I think there's a deal to be had. That doesn't mean we're going to get it," Stern said. "I want to get a deal done, and I think we can."

At the Shanghai meeting, the seven countries involved pledged to push ahead with 175 projects meant to help promote key technologies, such as clean coal, green building technology and reduced emissions from steel, aluminum and cement plants.

The countries attending included China, the U.S., Australia, Canada, India, Japan and South Korea.